A brilliant new Penguin war anthem has appeared since the publication of this article. Now they are not just armed with the best US military equipment money can buy but also morally ready to fight! https://youtu.be/HJ8qGOe2K0o?si=PDafBxvjdAbArCPi
In my post I explained in a humorous way that Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" were nothing but an "invitation" to the negotiating table.
(I also explained in a more serious way the obsession with the trade deficit and how these tariffs could create jobs. Finally, I reached a contrarian investment conclusion).
A brilliant new Penguin war anthem has appeared since the publication of this article. Now they are not just armed with the best US military equipment money can buy but also morally ready to fight! https://youtu.be/HJ8qGOe2K0o?si=PDafBxvjdAbArCPi
In this article on Apr.6 I predicted that US will be asking countries to buy their F-16s to “correct” the trade balance.
My only mistake was that it is F-35s that they are pushing.
This is exactly what JDVance suggested on his trip to India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jd-vance-pushes-f-35s-to-help-iaf-secure-indias-airspace/articleshow/120534368.cms
In my post I explained in a humorous way that Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" were nothing but an "invitation" to the negotiating table.
(I also explained in a more serious way the obsession with the trade deficit and how these tariffs could create jobs. Finally, I reached a contrarian investment conclusion).
Since I published this post yesterday, “maybe almost 70" countries have reached out to the White House about negotiating tariffs according to Scott Bessent https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-crypto.html
At least 3 of them, including Taiwan and Vietnam, has joined Israel in offering zero tariffs on US goods. This is what I called Option A in my "Penguins' negotiating strategy". https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/07/zero-tariffs-proposal-us-trade-war/
Even the EU, which I thought would retaliate first but then agree a deal, had reportedly offered zero tariff on industrial goods https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-offers-trump-removal-of-all-tariffs/
rely MUCH less on whitehouse sources.
its unlikely any new deal is contractually complete due to lack of experienced staffers to construct.
game theory purports 1-on-1 negotiations in a complex trade web only useful for bribes.
Please see the UK deal concluded yesterday
be far less naive. if it ever finalizes (not a given since american auto and farmers specifically hurt), the net will be minimal change.
in a week where trump needed some + publicity, this was the best moment uk had since brexit to avoid crippling new terms.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15ng4g5g0eo
the sooner trump realized massive bribes are not coming, the sooner we get back to 2024 trade status quo.