I dont recommend individual stocks here but if you are looking for inspiration for investable ideas, I recommend Alex's well-researched ideas on https://sweetstocks.substack.com and for Asia https://www.asiancenturystocks.com. I like global small cap and value factor biases.
Given the uncertainty and high consequence events associated with Trump's tariff policies, challenging fiscal situation the US faces while it's main financiers are reducing their exposure and attempting to reduce the unfair exorbitant privilege the US (dollar) enjoys, why not just do nothing and hold a big pile of cash rather than invest? The US and many markets are pretty long into this bull market and likely closer to the top than bottom.
That's a good point on inflation and USD, I'm not US based but if I was would be tempted by current dollar strength to diversify into different currencies and markets. While I can see inflation eroding US purchasing power, Trump's tariffs if implemented as stated will probably be deflationary for the rest of the world as we absorb China's excess goods.
I'm in Australia and traditionally very open markets with no/low tariffs and high exposure/reliance on commodity exports to China leads to the growing a big pike of cash strategy, which is also cognisant that for ASX we are probably closer to top than bottom of cycle and the small cap space could be full of A+ setups for stock pickers when investors are panicking.
Great read! While I agree that the US market is overvalued and there are promising opportunities in China, I don’t believe the war in Ukraine is nearing an end, especially if you follow European politics, like in Germany.
Additionally, many of the recently announced members of Trump’s cabinet are hardliners on issues like the Iran conflict, so even if the situation in Ukraine settles, other conflicts may continue.
As for Europe, I think it’s no longer just about affordable energy, even though that's essential to countries like Germany and Italy. The strategic missteps made at both industrial and economic levels can't simply be resolved with cheaper energy alone. But, I hope that I'm wrong and you are right about this.
Thank you for your comment and your kind words. I do follow European politics closely. I only listed a couple of reasons, but in fact I hear more comments from military commentators that negotiations may be already ongoing unofficially (for example, witness the recent lack of mutual attacks on infrastructure) and could be concluded even before the inauguration of Trump in January. It doesn't even need the be the full peace accord, just a pause in hostilities, which would be taken as a very positive signal by the market, in my view. Regarding Iran, yes, there could be periods of hard pressure, which would lead to temporary spikes in oil price. However, I think the conflict will now be resolved faster than before, and that the overall trend for oil is down, as there is plenty of spare capacity. For Europe, energy is critical. For example, in Germany BASF is an important pole for myriad other large and small industrial businesses. BASF can't operate with high energy prices and had to relocate some of their facilities outside Europe, with ripple through the Mittelstand, which is then fed through to consumers, leads to unemployment etc.
I dont recommend individual stocks here but if you are looking for inspiration for investable ideas, I recommend Alex's well-researched ideas on https://sweetstocks.substack.com and for Asia https://www.asiancenturystocks.com. I like global small cap and value factor biases.
Given the uncertainty and high consequence events associated with Trump's tariff policies, challenging fiscal situation the US faces while it's main financiers are reducing their exposure and attempting to reduce the unfair exorbitant privilege the US (dollar) enjoys, why not just do nothing and hold a big pile of cash rather than invest? The US and many markets are pretty long into this bull market and likely closer to the top than bottom.
Inflation will eat that pile of cash. Then there is a question which currency. Most people also like to have some form of return as income or capital.
That's a good point on inflation and USD, I'm not US based but if I was would be tempted by current dollar strength to diversify into different currencies and markets. While I can see inflation eroding US purchasing power, Trump's tariffs if implemented as stated will probably be deflationary for the rest of the world as we absorb China's excess goods.
I'm in Australia and traditionally very open markets with no/low tariffs and high exposure/reliance on commodity exports to China leads to the growing a big pike of cash strategy, which is also cognisant that for ASX we are probably closer to top than bottom of cycle and the small cap space could be full of A+ setups for stock pickers when investors are panicking.
Great read! While I agree that the US market is overvalued and there are promising opportunities in China, I don’t believe the war in Ukraine is nearing an end, especially if you follow European politics, like in Germany.
Additionally, many of the recently announced members of Trump’s cabinet are hardliners on issues like the Iran conflict, so even if the situation in Ukraine settles, other conflicts may continue.
As for Europe, I think it’s no longer just about affordable energy, even though that's essential to countries like Germany and Italy. The strategic missteps made at both industrial and economic levels can't simply be resolved with cheaper energy alone. But, I hope that I'm wrong and you are right about this.
Thank you for your comment and your kind words. I do follow European politics closely. I only listed a couple of reasons, but in fact I hear more comments from military commentators that negotiations may be already ongoing unofficially (for example, witness the recent lack of mutual attacks on infrastructure) and could be concluded even before the inauguration of Trump in January. It doesn't even need the be the full peace accord, just a pause in hostilities, which would be taken as a very positive signal by the market, in my view. Regarding Iran, yes, there could be periods of hard pressure, which would lead to temporary spikes in oil price. However, I think the conflict will now be resolved faster than before, and that the overall trend for oil is down, as there is plenty of spare capacity. For Europe, energy is critical. For example, in Germany BASF is an important pole for myriad other large and small industrial businesses. BASF can't operate with high energy prices and had to relocate some of their facilities outside Europe, with ripple through the Mittelstand, which is then fed through to consumers, leads to unemployment etc.
Here is another confirmation just out: Zelensky says war will 'end sooner' with Trump as president https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0mzgv4x901o